Make Up Your Mind -The Art of Making Good Decisions

Richard David Hames – 11th September 2024.

Decisions. Life is full of them. Every day we make numerous decisions – some small and relatively inconsequential, others potentially life-changing. We conscientiously protect our right to choose from the many options available to us. It is pivotal to our perceived distinctiveness as human beings – or so we believe. Indeed the right of each individual to choose their own path, at least in democratic societies, has become the unchallenged definition of free will.
Some people are capable of making better decisions than others. They become known for their sound judgement and proficiency in a particular field. Two factors set this group apart particularly vis-a-vis the ‘longevity integrity’ of their decisions. First is their uncanny ability to pay attention to patterns in addition to any repetitive causal interactions in those patterns. Second is the perceptive nature of their ‘sensing’ and ‘making sense’ of the contextual dynamics in which their decisions play out.
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Certainly the manner in which ‘successful’ people make decisions is poles apart from what we might expect from our own training – grounded as it is in assumptions about a world that is long gone. For example, most of us were taught that making good decisions requires us to collect all relevant data. This then enables us to balance priorities and the seemingly antithetical forces of emotion and rationality, anticipate the future, accurately perceive present conditions, have insights into the intentions of others, and deal with ambiguity, uncertainty and unpredictability. Voila! It’s as simple as that. Or not….
Although we might scoff at the analysis, which can appear fuzzy to rational brains, the many ways in which those in prominent or influential positions make up their minds is validated by the latest research into the human mind. This might not be what you expect. Can you recognize these characteristics of what we’re inclined to label ‘success’ in your own behaviour?

1. IMAGINATION
   Successful people actually ‘see’ more options than are apparent to the rest of us. They don’t feel trapped by current circumstances to the same extent, and are able to imagine and conjure up future possibilities that simply would not occur to others. The critical skill here is in the discovery of ‘imageable metaphors’ which can be used to convey new possibilities to others. It’s perfectly captured in the way science writer Janine Benyus ‘sees’ how the biomimicry of nature can generate practical solutions to industrial problems, or how architect William McDonough re-envisages growth in terms of ecologically intelligent design.
2. INTELLIGENCE
   Accomplished decision makers develop a robust capacity for ‘tuning in’ to what’s going on around them, continuously examining the ambient environment for the slightest sign of change. They are obsessed by the need to know and comprehend what’s happened, what is happening, and what is still to happen, to the point where they instinctively decipher emergent dynamics, continuously making sense of what it means for them and, more broadly, for others in the same setting. Their scanners are set to pick up not just strong signals, but also the faint frequencies of events yet to transpire; signals so obscure they do not even register on most people’s screens.
   But that’s not all. They then spend a lot of time turning this raw information into new knowledge, finding traces and patterns in the noise that others ignore, or simply don’t see, and preparing to act based on the ensuing intelligence which can be used to navigate future conditions, however unpredictable these might be.
3. FEARLESS
   Successful people don’t worry too much about the immediate outcomes of their decisions. Most of us routinely make decisions based upon either ‘loss aversion’ (i.e. the avoidance of pain) or ‘affective forecasting’ (i.e. the pursuit of pleasure). In other words we make the safest possible choices based on what we believe will keep us out of harms way or make us happy – even though we invariably miscalculate the emotional impact of most decisions on our lives.
   Successful people avoid these mind traps by appreciating that whatever the future might hold will probably hurt or please them less than they might otherwise imagine. I put this ability to attenuate the emotive impulse down to self-confidence – an assurance generated by continuous systemic evaluation of the unintended consequences of their decisions and decision-making processes. The result is a measured passion envied by many.
4. INSTINCT
   Good decision makers avoid data overload. Unlike most of us they don’t spend inordinate amounts of time methodically weighing up all the pros and cons of their decisions. On the contrary, they tend to make rapid decisions, harnessing their finely tuned gut instincts and using available data only to inform risk. In essence they find spur-of-the-moment judgements based upon first impressions to be more infinitely more resilient (and wiser in the long term) than conclusions based on excessive amounts of data which, they know from experience, can actually distort their ability to make sound decisions.
   We make judgements about a person’s trustworthiness, competence and character within the first 100 milliseconds of seeing a new face. Given a little longer to look we simply become more confident in that original assessment. In many cases, the unconscious brain makes better decisions than a prolonged process of conscious deliberation. Paradoxically, successful people recognize that the more information they have, the better off they are going with their intuition.
5. SELF-AWARENESS
   Effective decision makers tune into and are deeply aware of their feelings. In today’s jargon, they are ’emotionally intelligent’. Whenever we make a decision, of any kind, our limbic system (the brain’s emotional centre) is busy. All feelings effect our thinking and volition. Our brains appear to store emotional memories of past choices, which are then used to inform present decisions.
   It has been proven, for example, that disgust leads to caution (especially in women) and moral censure while anger makes us impetuous, selfish and risk prone. Emotions are clearly a critical component in the neurobiology of choice. So a critical, albeit tacit, aspect of decision making is the emotional context. Remaining unaware of the emotional context within which one is making decisions can severely alter the actual outcome.
   Strangely, there is one emotion that appears to help us make wiser choices. Generally speaking sad people take time to consider the various alternatives on offer and frequently end up making the best decisions. Many studies show that clinically depressed people have the most realistic take on the world. Psychologists have even coined a phrase for it: ‘depressive realism’.
6. FLEXIBILITY
   Successful people are hardly ever dogmatic and yet tend to express genuine humility. Amazingly flexible in their views, they welcome alternative and novel perspectives and are constantly on the lookout for opinions that run counter to their own. This grows into an extraordinary self-discipline which allows them to try to disprove their own theories rather than defending them at any cost.
   These are rare qualities. Most of us constantly look for evidence that supports our beliefs while conveniently ignoring everything else. We also tend to anchor our arguments to irrelevant facts and figures in situations where a paucity of information is available, allowing them to sway our judgement. We refer to this as ‘ubiquitous confirmation bias’. This bias becomes a problem if we believe we are making a sensible decision by rationally comparing the alternatives, when in fact we already have a favoured position we simply want to justify.
   Politicians are especially prone to this, which may be why it is so difficult to find unbiased arguments from those in government. Pressures exerted by politicians on corporate media also ensure that a ubiquitous confirmation bias remains one of the key reasons for the lack of public dialogue and community debate around critical contemporary issues.
7. LETTING GO
   Generally speaking the more we invest our time, energy and resources in something, the greater will be our commitment to it. This has been dubbed the ‘sunk cost’ fallacy and we are duped by it so much of the time. It doesn’t have to be money of course. We have all had the experience of persevering with a friendship, a book, or a movie long after it became clear we should cut our losses and run for cover.
   You know the kind of thing I mean. Perhaps you buy a new dress or a suit. You wear it once or twice, but then it stays hidden at the back of your wardrobe, possibly for years. You are reluctant to throw it out, even though it is seriously out of fashion and you would never fit into it these days! Why? Because it cost a few dollars – and it’s there. It’s a part of you.
   Stock market traders are particularly susceptible to this myth, frequently waiting far too long to dump shares that are plummeting in value. The British and French governments fell for it in the 1970s when they continued investing heavily in the Concorde project well past the point when it became clear that developing the aircraft was not financially viable. It’s true today in terms of many new technologies that simply won’t cut the mustard.
   Good decision makers have no such qualms, developing the capacity to let go of what is past in order to focus their efforts on present realities. Their attachment is to better futures and not to past illusions.
8. FRAMING
   When we are called upon to make a choice, most of us succumb to the ‘framing’ effect. This is where the choices we make are irrationally coloured by the way in which the alternatives are presented. Sales and marketing people are particularly good at exploiting this. Take snack foods. Healthy snacks are frequently marketed purely on their benefits – as ’90 per cent fat free’ rather than ’10 per cent fat’ for example.
   At other times the framing factor depends upon whether we see a choice as part of a bigger picture or as discrete from previous decisions. Race goers, for example, tend to consider each race as a separate betting opportunity, until the end of the day when they see the final race as a chance to recoup the losses they have incurred throughout the day. This explains why punters are most likely to bet on an outsider in the final race.
   Most successful people are able to recognize various framing factors, allowing them to include subtle contextual information in their decision-making when this is to their advantage and excluding it when it is not. John McFarlane, Chairman of Australia’s Westpac Bank, is a master of contextual framing. Enormous benefits have accrued to the companies under his stewardship through his immense tactical skill of knowing how to read and shape contextual framing. Previous colleagues of McFarlane, at ANZ Banking Group and Barclays, still marvel at such mysterious and unexplainable ‘nous’ to this day.
9. FOCUS
   Successful people quickly consider and set aside many options, keeping as many open for as long as they can, but actually choosing from as small a field as possible. This runs counter to the majority of us who prefer greater choice and believe that more choice is better than less. But greater choice comes with a price tag, making greater demands on our information processing skills and causing confusion rather than clarity.
   In fact in today’s commercial fairground there is so much choice that it can lead to paralysis. For example, there are so many mobile plans to choose from these days that, even with assistance from various web sites, it’s become virtually impossible to sort out the best deals, so complicated has it all become.
   This plays into the hands of the dominant brands. Research has shown that most consumers stay with the company they are with. It has nothing to do with loyalty but much more to do with an ambiguity regarding the advantages of moving to a different supplier.
10. CANDOUR
    We’re all subject to the influence of social pressures. Even the most single-minded and objective individuals are prone to letting others influence them from time to time. It’s one of the principal forms of motivating others and can be used for both good and bad purposes. Successful decision makers understand this, reacting instinctively to social pressure of any kind.
    The exceptional, occasionally annoying and disruptive, tendency of these people to challenge the status quo, or authority, can be quite disconcerting. Indeed it’s often cited as the main reason others point to them as ‘born leaders’ and it’s a trait that’s often mistaken for courage. In fact most of the time it happens to be an overwhelming sincerity – a desire to tell the truth driven by their ethos and strong sense of openness.
    John Browne of BP, for example, caused feathers to ruffle when he admitted, long before others in the industry, that oil was clearly a major factor in global warming. The reaction of an individual against the power of ‘group think’ often occurs when factions start to agree among themselves about the best course of action, or talk themselves into an extreme position. At that juncture successful people will often step in, playing the contrarian and demonstrating a frankness that’s unflinching.
11. COLLABORATION
    Another way good decision makers change the dynamic, and achieve a greater sense of personal satisfaction into the bargain, is by encouraging others to make the decisions for which they would normally be responsible. Most of us tend to believe that we’ll be happiest when we are in control. But research tells us that is not the case. Successful people know it is often better to relinquish control. This is why ‘leadership’ is better thought of as an adjective rather than a noun.

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	View in browser Make up your mind The art of making good decisions Richard David Hames Sep 11     READ IN APP   Decisions. Life is full of them. Every day we make numerous decisions – some small and relatively inconsequential, others potentially life-changing. We conscientiously protect our right to choose from the many options available to us. It is pivotal to our perceived distinctiveness as human beings – or so we believe. Indeed the right of each individual to choose their own path, at least in democratic societies, has become the unchallenged definition of free will. Some people are capable of making better decisions than others. They become known for their sound judgement and proficiency in a particular field. Two factors set this group apart particularly vis-a-vis the ‘longevity integrity’ of their decisions. First is their uncanny ability to pay attention to patterns in addition to any repetitive causal interactions in those patterns. Second is the perceptive nature of their ‘sensing’ and ‘making sense’ of the contextual dynamics in which their decisions play out. The Hames Report – Limited Edition is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Upgrade to paid Certainly the manner in which ‘successful’ people make decisions is poles apart from what we might expect from our own training – grounded as it is in assumptions about a world that is long gone. For example, most of us were taught that making good decisions requires us to collect all relevant data. This then enables us to balance priorities and the seemingly antithetical forces of emotion and rationality, anticipate the future, accurately perceive present conditions, have insights into the intentions of others, and deal with ambiguity, uncertainty and unpredictability. Voila! It’s as simple as that. Or not…. Although we might scoff at the analysis, which can appear fuzzy to rational brains, the many ways in which those in prominent or influential positions make up their minds is validated by the latest research into the human mind. This might not be what you expect. Can you recognize these characteristics of what we’re inclined to label ‘success’ in your own behaviour? 1. IMAGINATION Successful people actually ‘see’ more options than are apparent to the rest of us. They don’t feel trapped by current circumstances to the same extent, and are able to imagine and conjure up future possibilities that simply would not occur to others. The critical skill here is in the discovery of ‘imageable metaphors’ which can be used to convey new possibilities to others. It’s perfectly captured in the way science writer Janine Benyus ‘sees’ how the biomimicry of nature can generate practical solutions to industrial problems, or how architect William McDonough re-envisages growth in terms of ecologically intelligent design. 2. INTELLIGENCE Accomplished decision makers develop a robust capacity for ‘tuning in’ to what’s going on around them, continuously examining the ambient environment for the slightest sign of change. They are obsessed by the need to know and comprehend what’s happened, what is happening, and what is still to happen, to the point where they instinctively decipher emergent dynamics, continuously making sense of what it means for them and, more broadly, for others in the same setting. Their scanners are set to pick up not just strong signals, but also the faint frequencies of events yet to transpire; signals so obscure they do not even register on most people’s screens. But that’s not all. They then spend a lot of time turning this raw information into new knowledge, finding traces and patterns in the noise that others ignore, or simply don’t see, and preparing to act based on the ensuing intelligence which can be used to navigate future conditions, however unpredictable these might be. 3. FEARLESS Successful people don’t worry too much about the immediate outcomes of their decisions. Most of us routinely make decisions based upon either ‘loss aversion’ (i.e. the avoidance of pain) or ‘affective forecasting’ (i.e. the pursuit of pleasure). In other words we make the safest possible choices based on what we believe will keep us out of harms way or make us happy – even though we invariably miscalculate the emotional impact of most decisions on our lives. Successful people avoid these mind traps by appreciating that whatever the future might hold will probably hurt or please them less than they might otherwise imagine. I put this ability to attenuate the emotive impulse down to self-confidence – an assurance generated by continuous systemic evaluation of the unintended consequences of their decisions and decision-making processes. The result is a measured passion envied by many. 4. INSTINCT Good decision makers avoid data overload. Unlike most of us they don’t spend inordinate amounts of time methodically weighing up all the pros and cons of their decisions. On the contrary, they tend to make rapid decisions, harnessing their finely tuned gut instincts and using available data only to inform risk. In essence they find spur-of-the-moment judgements based upon first impressions to be more infinitely more resilient (and wiser in the long term) than conclusions based on excessive amounts of data which, they know from experience, can actually distort their ability to make sound decisions. We make judgements about a person’s trustworthiness, competence and character within the first 100 milliseconds of seeing a new face. Given a little longer to look we simply become more confident in that original assessment. In many cases, the unconscious brain makes better decisions than a prolonged process of conscious deliberation. Paradoxically, successful people recognize that the more information they have, the better off they are going with their intuition. 5. SELF-AWARENESS Effective decision makers tune into and are deeply aware of their feelings. In today’s jargon, they are ’emotionally intelligent’. Whenever we make a decision, of any kind, our limbic system (the brain’s emotional centre) is busy. All feelings effect our thinking and volition. Our brains appear to store emotional memories of past choices, which are then used to inform present decisions. It has been proven, for example, that disgust leads to caution (especially in women) and moral censure while anger makes us impetuous, selfish and risk prone. Emotions are clearly a critical component in the neurobiology of choice. So a critical, albeit tacit, aspect of decision making is the emotional context. Remaining unaware of the emotional context within which one is making decisions can severely alter the actual outcome. Strangely, there is one emotion that appears to help us make wiser choices. Generally speaking sad people take time to consider the various alternatives on offer and frequently end up making the best decisions. Many studies show that clinically depressed people have the most realistic take on the world. Psychologists have even coined a phrase for it: ‘depressive realism’. 6. FLEXIBILITY Successful people are hardly ever dogmatic and yet tend to express genuine humility. Amazingly flexible in their views, they welcome alternative and novel perspectives and are constantly on the lookout for opinions that run counter to their own. This grows into an extraordinary self-discipline which allows them to try to disprove their own theories rather than defending them at any cost. These are rare qualities. Most of us constantly look for evidence that supports our beliefs while conveniently ignoring everything else. We also tend to anchor our arguments to irrelevant facts and figures in situations where a paucity of information is available, allowing them to sway our judgement. We refer to this as ‘ubiquitous confirmation bias’. This bias becomes a problem if we believe we are making a sensible decision by rationally comparing the alternatives, when in fact we already have a favoured position we simply want to justify. Politicians are especially prone to this, which may be why it is so difficult to find unbiased arguments from those in government. Pressures exerted by politicians on corporate media also ensure that a ubiquitous confirmation bias remains one of the key reasons for the lack of public dialogue and community debate around critical contemporary issues. 7. LETTING GO Generally speaking the more we invest our time, energy and resources in something, the greater will be our commitment to it. This has been dubbed the ‘sunk cost’ fallacy and we are duped by it so much of the time. It doesn’t have to be money of course. We have all had the experience of persevering with a friendship, a book, or a movie long after it became clear we should cut our losses and run for cover. You know the kind of thing I mean. Perhaps you buy a new dress or a suit. You wear it once or twice, but then it stays hidden at the back of your wardrobe, possibly for years. You are reluctant to throw it out, even though it is seriously out of fashion and you would never fit into it these days! Why? Because it cost a few dollars – and it’s there. It’s a part of you. Stock market traders are particularly susceptible to this myth, frequently waiting far too long to dump shares that are plummeting in value. The British and French governments fell for it in the 1970s when they continued investing heavily in the Concorde project well past the point when it became clear that developing the aircraft was not financially viable. It’s true today in terms of many new technologies that simply won’t cut the mustard. Good decision makers have no such qualms, developing the capacity to let go of what is past in order to focus their efforts on present realities. Their attachment is to better futures and not to past illusions. 8. FRAMING When we are called upon to make a choice, most of us succumb to the ‘framing’ effect. This is where the choices we make are irrationally coloured by the way in which the alternatives are presented. Sales and marketing people are particularly good at exploiting this. Take snack foods. Healthy snacks are frequently marketed purely on their benefits – as ’90 per cent fat free’ rather than ’10 per cent fat’ for example. At other times the framing factor depends upon whether we see a choice as part of a bigger picture or as discrete from previous decisions. Race goers, for example, tend to consider each race as a separate betting opportunity, until the end of the day when they see the final race as a chance to recoup the losses they have incurred throughout the day. This explains why punters are most likely to bet on an outsider in the final race. Most successful people are able to recognize various framing factors, allowing them to include subtle contextual information in their decision-making when this is to their advantage and excluding it when it is not. John McFarlane, Chairman of Australia’s Westpac Bank, is a master of contextual framing. Enormous benefits have accrued to the companies under his stewardship through his immense tactical skill of knowing how to read and shape contextual framing. Previous colleagues of McFarlane, at ANZ Banking Group and Barclays, still marvel at such mysterious and unexplainable ‘nous’ to this day. 9. FOCUS Successful people quickly consider and set aside many options, keeping as many open for as long as they can, but actually choosing from as small a field as possible. This runs counter to the majority of us who prefer greater choice and believe that more choice is better than less. But greater choice comes with a price tag, making greater demands on our information processing skills and causing confusion rather than clarity. In fact in today’s commercial fairground there is so much choice that it can lead to paralysis. For example, there are so many mobile plans to choose from these days that, even with assistance from various web sites, it’s become virtually impossible to sort out the best deals, so complicated has it all become. This plays into the hands of the dominant brands. Research has shown that most consumers stay with the company they are with. It has nothing to do with loyalty but much more to do with an ambiguity regarding the advantages of moving to a different supplier. 10. CANDOUR We’re all subject to the influence of social pressures. Even the most single-minded and objective individuals are prone to letting others influence them from time to time. It’s one of the principal forms of motivating others and can be used for both good and bad purposes. Successful decision makers understand this, reacting instinctively to social pressure of any kind. The exceptional, occasionally annoying and disruptive, tendency of these people to challenge the status quo, or authority, can be quite disconcerting. Indeed it’s often cited as the main reason others point to them as ‘born leaders’ and it’s a trait that’s often mistaken for courage. In fact most of the time it happens to be an overwhelming sincerity – a desire to tell the truth driven by their ethos and strong sense of openness. John Browne of BP, for example, caused feathers to ruffle when he admitted, long before others in the industry, that oil was clearly a major factor in global warming. The reaction of an individual against the power of ‘group think’ often occurs when factions start to agree among themselves about the best course of action, or talk themselves into an extreme position. At that juncture successful people will often step in, playing the contrarian and demonstrating a frankness that’s unflinching. 11. COLLABORATION Another way good decision makers change the dynamic, and achieve a greater sense of personal satisfaction into the bargain, is by encouraging others to make the decisions for which they would normally be responsible. Most of us tend to believe that we’ll be happiest when we are in control. But research tells us that is not the case. Successful people know it is often better to relinquish control. This is why ‘leadership’ is better thought of as an adjective rather than a noun. The Hames Report – Limited Edition is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Upgrade to paid You’re currently a free subscriber to The Hames Report – Limited Edition. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. Upgrade to paid   Like Comment Restack   © 2023 Richard David Hames 3 Bligh Street. Chifley. NSW 2036. Australia Unsubscribe